vs Network (Axis 1): Score 0-100 measuring how much worse this locker performs compared to the network average. Based on DPMO ratio, throughput deficit, ticket frequency.
vs Self (Axis 2): Score 0-100 measuring how much worse this locker is compared to its own 9-month history. Based on DPMO trend, throughput decline, ticket spikes, maintenance increases.
HIGH RISK: Both axes ≥ 40. The locker is worse than average AND getting worse over time. Double signal = intervention needed.
MODERATE RISK: One axis ≥ 40. Either worse than network OR declining vs self, but not both.
Positive + HIGH RISK: A locker can be profitable today but flagged HIGH RISK because it is deteriorating on both axes. The EWS catches this early so ops can intervene before losses begin.
Churn Score: Renewal-specific. Composite of performance signals that historically preceded non-renewals (validated at 40% detection, 18% false positive).
Every locker is scored on two independent axes. HIGH RISK = worse on BOTH axes (AND, not OR).
How much worse than the average locker?
• DPMO ratio (locker / network avg)
• Throughput deficit (network avg / locker)
• Ticket frequency vs network median
How much worse than own 9-month history?
• DPMO trend (recent 3mo vs prior 6mo)
• Throughput decline rate
• Ticket spike (recent vs historical)
• Maintenance cost increase
HIGH RISK = both axes ≥ 40 (worse than network AND getting worse over time). MODERATE = one axis ≥ 40.
The EWS intentionally flags lockers that are still profitable today but deteriorating on both axes. Currently 174 of 1,149 HIGH RISK lockers (15%) are net-positive. These lockers are worse than the network average AND worse than their own recent history — they have runway before going negative, but the trajectory is clear. This is by design: the EWS is an early warning system, not a "already broken" detector. Catching deterioration while a locker is still positive gives operations time to intervene before losses begin.
All lockers flagged HIGH RISK or MODERATE RISK. Filter by risk level or axis to focus on specific segments. Summary KPIs update when you filter.
| KID | Partner | Risk Level | Axis | vs Network | vs Self | Combined | Net$/mo | DPMO | Tput | Tickets | Tier | Vertical | Est 2026 |
|---|
| Partner | At-Risk KIDs | % Portfolio | Avg EWS Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-Eleven - Company | 455 | 57.71327313103991% | 70.74705313812888 |
| Amazon Locker Team - Inbo | 253 | 55.97107236050827% | -181.02987368879403 |
| Circle K - Company | 172 | 59.38901019011772% | 194.8441306112631 |
| Dollar Tree | 157 | 54.84622752063482% | -166.66937507290154 |
| Staples | 156 | 55.86509671031876% | -176.34628205128206 |
| Family Dollar | 127 | 55.28174208763905% | -136.17874452051424 |
| Ross | 122 | 55.39853776236741% | -84.72476775956287 |
| QuikTrip | 103 | 57.16974521571891% | -231.10050701186623 |
| Wawa | 93 | 57.2028939391373% | -165.8047072879331 |
| OmniEngine | 75 | 60.26277106199972% | -187.65405925925927 |
| Burlington | 68 | 51.07316502383591% | -122.51566993464054 |
| Albertsons/Safeway | 50 | 59.78521043836865% | -226.83140000000003 |
| Love's Travel Stops | 39 | 61.58065613714509% | 347.3272015651633 |
| Amazon Delivery Stations | 37 | 55.27415693058918% | -218.6047447447448 |
| UNFI - Company | 33 | 57.8450204117756% | 43.225562331582864 |
Lease renewals apply to residential lockers only (apartments, multi-family housing). Commercial lockers operate via partnership agreements without rental contracts.
Key insight: "Renewed? = No" does NOT mean they declined. It means not yet renewed. Only if the contract is EXPIRED and Renewed? = No do we know it was not renewed.
40% of past non-renewals had detectable signals 12 months before expiry. Signals are 2.2x discriminative of churn risk.
18% of lockers with signals still renewed. Signals indicate risk, not certainty.
| Bucket | Count | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| KEEP | 399 | Don't touch | Profitable, silent. $3.16M/yr at zero rent. Do NOT disturb. |
| RENEW | 1,026 | Proactive outreach | Low risk, profitable. Lock in before competitor approaches. |
| FIX | 34 | Address issues first | Profitable but has DPMO/ticket signals. Fix before renewal convo. |
| ENGAGE | 39 | Partner conversation | Profitable but partner showing unhappiness signals. |
| PREPARE EXIT | 17 | Line up replacement | Unprofitable + signals. Plan transition to nearby viable location. |
| MONITOR | 126 | Quarterly review | Marginal, quiet. Could go either way. |
406 residential leases expired without renewal — partners stopped paying lease fees ($3.16M/yr in lost lease revenue). These lockers still operate and many remain PnL-positive from transport savings alone. Strategy: (1) Proactively pursue renewal outreach to restore lease payments. (2) Do NOT remove any locker with positive PnL even if lease is expired — transport savings still justify the placement. (3) Only consider removal if locker is net-negative AND lease expired AND partner unresponsive.