NERVE — Network Earnings & Risk Visibility Engine

Tier Definitions:
EMERGING RISK (P0): Currently positive but 4+ months consecutive decline, detrended slope <-5, projected negative within 4 months. Preventive intervention window.
CRITICAL (P1): 95.6% precision. Two paths: (a) Slope: net<$5, slope<-10, detrended slope<-5, 12m slope<0, R²>0.3, seasonal projection negative. (b) Maintenance: net<$20, 5+ tickets in 6m, $500+ maintenance in 6m.
HIGH (P2): 93.8% precision. Two paths: (a) Slope: net<$15, slope<-5, 12m slope<0, R²>0.3. (b) Maintenance: net<$30, 3+ tickets, $250+ maint. (c) Run Ads: passed quality gate (DPMO<8K, tput>0.15, low maint, has ad rights).
ELEVATED (P3): 91.1% precision. net<$50, slope<-5, R²>0.2, projection<$20.
LOW (P4): 87.2% precision. net<$100, slope<0, throughput velocity<-0.005.
STABLE: Does not meet any deterioration criteria.

Metric Definitions:
Net$/mo: Monthly net PnL = transport_savings + ad_revenue - concessions - rent - ad_wrap - maintenance - depreciation - other
Transport: $1.15 × shipped_units/month
Ad Rev: Actual per-KID ad campaign revenue. $0 if no campaign running.
Ad Wrap: $209/mo charged ONLY when actual ad campaign is running (not when wrap is merely installed)
Maint: 3-month rolling avg of actual vendor invoice costs (B&H + Velociti). Falls back to flat rate if no invoices.
DPMO: Defects per million opportunities = (conceded/shipped) × 1,000,000. <8K good, >15K critical.
Tput: Daily throughput = packages/(active_days × slots). >0.15 good, <0.08 critical.
Tput Vel: 6-month throughput slope. Negative = declining volume.
Slope: 6-month OLS regression slope of net PnL. Negative = deteriorating.
R²: Coefficient of determination. Higher = more confident trend. >0.3 required for CRITICAL.
Dispatches: Count of months with vendor dispatches in last 6 months (from actual invoices). NOT same as tickets.
Est 2026: Actual YTD financials + projected remaining months at current rate.